Forecasting Frequently Asked Questions

Below you'll find some of the most common questions we receive regarding Forecasting and their answers.

To learn more about using forecasting, check out our dedicated article.

Frequently Asked Questions 

What Is The Forecasting Model Based On? 

The forecasting model runs daily after bidding and by default uses the last 28 days of historic clicks and, when available, position data, heavily biased on the last 7 days. It builds an auction model and volume model for all high volume keywords in a Strategy as well as for clusters of similar tail keywords. The keyword - and cluster - level models are then aggregated into a Strategy-level model that is shown in the graph. The predicted data in the forecasting model is the average daily results expected and should map closely to the Strategy’s performance over the last 7 days at current bidding Target.

Note: Forecasted clicks are used to obtain forecasted conversions (and revenue) based on historical conversion rates (and revenue per conversion) that come from a statistically significant lookback period that may be longer or shorter than the 28 days used in the click forecast model.

Why Is The Forecasting Model Unavailable? 

The Forecasting model is only available for search data.

  • Strategies with ONLY Content, Shopping/PLA, DSA, or other non-search data will not have forecasting models available. Similarly, for these campaigns, the Summary tab will not populate and will display the message "Need gross profit data to calculate bids. For margin based revenue models, bidding needs historical gross profit data." This is because the charts in the Summary tab are generated using keyword-level data. 
  • Strategies with Search and non-search data will have forecasts based on the search data in the Strategy only.

Also, there are several safety bumpers that are used to ensure accurate forecasts. The head and tail keywords used in the model must be responsible for at least 10% of the traffic of the Strategy.

For a keyword to be modeled by the forecasting tool it needs to have at least 28 clicks in the last 28 days and at least 10 days containing at least one click during the last 28 days. A Strategy needs at least 90% or more modelable traffic for a forecast to be generated. In other words, if 10% or more of the Strategy's traffic is driven by keywords that cannot be modeled by the forecasting tool, Strategy-level forecasts will not be built.

Forecasting will not be available for newly created Strategies until bidding has run once and calculated forecasting models.

Additionally, at least 15 keywords will need to meet the above criteria in order to generate a forecasting model.

How Should I Use The Forecasting Models? 

The best practice we recommend for setting a new target based on the forecasting model, is to first have Strategies on Traffic for a week, then check the model with the predicted average metrics. Based on your business goals, you can change the Strategy target to the new recommended by forecasting. For example, you can reduce publisher cost without loosing many conversions by comparing the publisher cost forecast and the conversion forecast. Once you have selected a suitable new target from the forecasting bubble, you can click on the new target on the chart and click Save – this will update the current Strategy target accordingly.

Is Forecasting Compatible With Google's Product Groups? 

We do not currently have forecasting support for Product Groups.

How Is The Four-Week Average Calculated? 

This metric excludes paused/deleted keywords and observes all Excluded Dates. Therefore, this average will not always match what is seen in the grid.

Is There A Way To Export Forecast Data? 

At the present time there is no official support for the exporting of forecast data directly from the app, however you could use a custom report to achieve a similar result.

Is Forecasting Available For Awareness Targeting Strategies? 

Forecasting is not currently available for Awareness Targeting Strategies. 

Written by Marketing @ Marin Software

Last published at: February 27th, 2024